Another stats issue in the can. This marks the first day of summer in my book. Not June 21. Not Memorial Day. Sending the stats issue to the printer means summer is officially here. We all can now take our collective breaths.
Why does our annual statistical issue take years off our lives? Simply put, the task of getting the numbers right—or as right as humanly possible—is the most time-consuming exercise the staff undertakes all year. Research involves getting our hands on as many reports as possible and talking to as many people as we can, both from companies and associations.
The team does an amazing job at running the wood, laminate, carpet and ceramic numbers through the wash multiple times. Needless to say, they are squeaky clean. They use good detergent. I took on resilient years ago because there are so many components to the category. Residential and commercial sheet. Residential and commercial LVT. Linoleum. VCT. Tile. And within every category there are sub-categories.
As in the past, I spoke to every major resilient supplier to obtain specific sales figures by category. We estimate the “others” (smaller players and private-label importers) based on a stack of documents and calls with industry sources. These numbers are as accurate as you’re going to get, I promise you.
There is, however, one aspect of this statistical report that I struggle with every year: the split between residential and commercial. Truth be told, it’s the hardest number to corral. Generally speaking, we are right there. But when we look at categories like carpet and resilient, there’s one thing I have a problem with: multifamily. Some companies classify it as residential, some put it in their commercial numbers—and, get this: some put it in both depending on the selling channel. So if we were to put every dollar and unit sold to multifamily in either residential or commercial, the numbers may be slightly different.
Now, before we talk about what we uncovered, I want to mention something I do every year. There are a bunch of statistical reports out there, some better than others. Some have numbers that are off the mark. Take hardwood, for example. Some reports just rely primarily on government numbers. But those figures include things like tractor trailer flatbeds and engineered products (such as plywood, paneling, etc.) that are misclassified by U.S. Customs and the Commerce Dept. Not finished flooring, people! Other reports include stone. We don’t. Others include ceramic wall tile. We don’t. Some include rubber cove base and accessories. Guess what? We don’t.
There is one other thing no one really takes into account, particularly as it relates to commercial, and that’s polished concrete. It’s not just going into new construction. It is sometimes replacing carpet and other hard surfaces in hospitality and retail. That’s a number that goes unreported.
So here are some random thoughts about all the numbers. At first glance you might be disappointed to see dollars down 10.1% to $25.122 billion. But keep in mind this is the third-highest dollar sales figure ever. We all knew there was going to be a correction after the industry took off post-COVID-19 in 2021 and 2022. In fact, that 10.1% drop is the largest since the Great Recession of 2008-09. More important, the industry is still up 9% in dollars from 2019, the most recent “normal” year.
Volume may be more indicative of the current state of the market. Overall units were down 9.1% from 2022 but also down 7% from 2019. So it’s safe to say much less flooring is being sold today than four years ago but at a higher price. Attribute that to a few things: multiple price increases, people opting to purchase better goods and inflation in general attacking many middle-class individuals’ discretionary purchases. The flooring industry in 2023 was still paying the price for the nearly $2 trillion in COVID-19-related handouts.
At the end of the day, the wealthier people are less impacted by inflation and will go forward with their discretionary home improvement projects and tend to buy better things. This is why upper-end hardwood is the only piece of the wood puzzle that did not get destroyed. The amount of hardwood sold today is at its lowest point since 2013; dollars are at its lowest level since 2014. Many consumers are opting for more budget-friendly options like rigid core or laminate when renovating their homes. However, at an ASP of $2.71, the price for wood has never been higher.
Lastly, resilient is of course driven by rigid core these days, and the UFLPA situation seriously impacted SPC/WPC business.
Enjoy the issue.
