After more than a decade of staggering growth, the resilient flooring category felt its first decline across the board in 2023.
When the dust settled, Floor Covering News research found the resilient flooring category as a whole generated $8.546 billion in 2023, that’s down 9.7% from $9.46 billion in 2022. In terms of volume, the resilient flooring category (not including rubber) accounted for 5.768 billion square feet at the first point of sale in 2023—that’s down 7.1% from 6.206 billion square feet in 2022.
Putting all that into perspective, 10 years ago resilient flooring garnered just $2.206 billion in sales. Even taking 2023’s decrease into account, that’s still nearly triple the market in the last decade. What’s more, the resilient category has experienced double-digital growth, leading the flooring industry, for eight years—with growth peaking at 30.3% in 2021.
Even more impressive is the fact that resilient managed to keep its lead in dollars over carpet (not including area rugs) for the second year running (by $1.09 billion). The LVT segment of the resilient category itself (including residential and commercial rigid core and flex), also nearly managed to eclipse carpet, trailing behind by just $14 million.
Mitigating factors
There were several factors that led to the decline in resilient. Much of it had to do with the ailing housing market, which was impacted by high interest rates and a stall in both new home construction and renovations as well as home sales in 2023.
“The biggest thing is really the slowing of the housing market, the interest rates rising that’s led to inflation, which has led to decreased consumer sentiment,” said Josh Martenn, VP of hard surface and Totalworx, Shaw. “There’s obviously uncertainty around the economy as a whole. The supply chain disruptions had a bit of an impact there as well. And then the labor shortage certainly didn’t help. But really and truly, the driving factor was just what we’re seeing happening in new construction and even remodel where interest rates have a lot of things on hold right now. Consumers are really being cautious about where, how and when they spend their money.”
Adam Ward, vice president, resilient, Mohawk, agreed, noting: “People shifted their dollar purchases since COVID-19, from home improvement to entertainment, travel, things like that. I think the bigger structural driver for residential is real estate. When you’re selling less existing homes, that’s less opportunity to get that remodel business. Less home sales are going to equal less flooring sales.”
Ward also noted deflation within resilient. “You had a lot of inflation of cost during [the pandemic]—whether it be supply chain, raw materials, tightness of supply. We were constantly talking about price increases. This started to abate last year where you saw freight lower. And as volume opened up, price came down.”
Market share dominance
When taking total flooring sales into account, resilient held onto its market share in 2023 and even gained slightly in terms of volume. Resilient flooring comprised 34% of total dollar sales and 35.55% of volume compared to last year’s 34% of total dollar sales and 31.64% of volume.
Looking back a decade to 2013, resilient accounted for only 11.9% of dollars ($2.206 billion) and 15.7% of volume (2.73 billion square feet). In essence, over these last several years, resilient’s share of the market has nearly tripled in terms of dollars and doubled in volume.
Resilient’s control of its market share in 2023 is even clearer when measured against the overall hard surface market. When compared to ceramic tile, hardwood and laminate, resilient accounted for 56.7% of dollar sales (and nearly 59% of volume), which is basically flat compared to 2022’s 56.6% of dollar sales and 58% of volume. That is still up from 53.6% of dollar sales (and 55.9% in volume) in 2021; 50.6% in sales in 2020; and 45.1% in sales in 2019.
Of that 56.7% hard surface share, the LVT subcategory, which garnered $7.32 billion, is by far the largest piece of the pie. While that represents an 11.4% decrease from 2022’s $8.262 billion, it still garnered 48.6% of hard surface in dollars.
Of course, it’s still the rigid core subsegment of resilient flooring that is driving the category. FCNews research found rigid core (SPC/WPC) garnered 57.5% of total resilient sales in 2023 and 46.6% of volume. That translates to $4.917 billion in sales and 2.687 billion square feet. That means dollar share was slightly down in 2023 vs. 2022’s 60% of total resilient sales—or $5.727 billion—and basically flat vs. 2022’s 47% volume—or 2.87 billion square feet.
While slightly down, as was most of the industry, it is still impressive when compared to 2020, when rigid core checked in at just $2.617 billion and 1.63 billion square feet. To put this in perspective, 10 years ago sheet vinyl held the major of the category’s share at 60%.
SPC comprises the lion’s share of total resilient dollars and volume today. In 2023, SPC made up nearly 46% of total resilient dollars, or $3.925 billion, and nearly 40% in volume. When compared to the rigid core market, SPC accounts for nearly 80% of dollars, or $3.925 billion, and nearly 40% in volume.
While the resilient category was down in 2023, it still garners interest due to its many attractive attributes. “Color, style and design are still driving the category,” Mohawk’s Ward said. “And then they’re looking for the features that go along with that. Waterproof, long warranties, ease of installation—all of those things factor in after they pick the color. But even before that, they’re picking increasingly hard [flooring] versus soft.”
Shaw’s Martenn agreed, noting the importance of durability and several other features to the product’s appeal. “That durability really leads to longevity. I think the other thing is obviously the water resistance—the waterproof craze is continuing to be all the rage. And then ease of maintenance. You don’t have to think about how you’re going to clean the floor, just your basic cleaner’s work. The couple of things you’ll see that’s really starting to become more and more prevalent is sound absorption and affordability.”
Residential breakdown
FCNews research shows the residential market made up about 74% of total resilient flooring revenue, or $6.325 billion in 2023. That was down about 12.5% in dollars from 2022’s $7.23 billion and even down from the year prior’s $6.407 billion. When it comes to the overall residential market, residential resilient makes up about 35.4% in dollars with $6.326 billion. However, that $6.326 is still up about 30.5% from 2020’s $4.847 billion in sales.
With respect to volume, residential resilient accounted for nearly 79% of the total 5.768 billion square feet—or 4.56 billion square feet—which was down about 7.7% from 2022’s 4.932 billion square feet. However, that’s still up compared to 4.114 billion square feet in 2020, when it claimed 76.8% of square footage shipped.
The bulk of the resilient flooring market’s activity was driven by residential LVT (including glue-down, flexible click, loose lay, WPC and SPC), which generated an estimated $5.651 billion in 2023. That was a 13.4% decrease from 2022’s $6.525 billion. It was also down from 2021’s $5.75 billion but still a nearly 33% increase from 2020’s $4.25 billion.
In terms of volume, residential LVT accounted for 3.438 billion square feet of the 5.768-billion-square-foot resilient market. That was a 6.7% decrease from 2022’s 3.683 billion square feet. However, it was still slightly up from 3.407 billion square feet in 2021 and 2.835 billion square feet in 2020.
When it comes to rigid core’s command of the residential LVT market, the subsegment (including SPC/WPC) generated $2.593 billion dollars in 2023, which means it commanded about 75.4% of the overall $3.438 billion LVT market. That’s a decrease in dollar share from 2022’s whopping 84%. However, it was still up from 2021’s 63.7% in dollar share.
SPC still takes the vast share of the residential market. FCNews research shows residential SPC garnered $3.718 billion in sales in 2023, or 58.8% of the total residential resilient market. And while that was a 12.4% drop in dollars from 2022’s $4.244 billion, it was still the lion’s share of resilient sales last year. With respect to volume, residential SPC garnered 48.6% of the overall resilient market or 2.216 billion square feet.
Within the residential LVT market, SPC claims 65.8% of dollar share with $3.718 billion of the total $5.65 billion residential LVT market. In terms of volume, residential SPC garners 64.5% of the market with 2.216 billion square feet of the total 3.438-billion-square-foot residential LVT market.
“We saw a boom in home renovations coming out of the peak pandemic years, leading to a surge in SPC sales in 2022,” said Doug Jackson, president, Cali. “That demand plateaued in 2023, partly due to increased interest in other hard surface categories like hardwood. Our residential SPC orders were still up compared to 2021, and we’re confident 2024 will be a solid year, particularly as we continue to strengthen our dealer partnerships.”
What’s more, some of the issues entry-level SPC caused caught up to the category in 2023. “Dealers have unfortunately been burned by entry-level SPC that has failed in the marketplace,” said David Sheehan, SVP – residential marketing and product, Mannington Mills. “In response, we are seeing a shift back toward WPC and substitute products. Dealers understand and trust the performance of WPC, and I think we will see this trend continue in 2024.”
However, while residential SPC did see a decline in both dollars and volume in 2023, it remained the biggest subsegment of the category overall—across both residential and commercial markets.
SPC’s sister-subsegment, WPC, also saw a decline in residential dollar sales and volume in 2023. FCNews pegs the category at $979.5 million in 2023, a 17.7% decrease from 2022’s $1.19 billion. In terms of volume FCNews research shows it garnered 377 million square feet last year, compared to 454.5 million in 2022 and 520 million in 2021.
WPC is heavily imported from China, making it vulnerable to supply chain disruptions. The Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act (UFLPA), a law enacted in 2022 that bans the importation of goods made in whole, or in part, in China’s Xinjiang region under the presumption they were produced using forced labor, caused strain across the entire resilient supply chain and definitely had a hand at the hardship WPC faced.
“UFLPA had a dramatic impact on the LVT supply chain,” Sheehan said. “Most of the major players were impacted and were forced to identify alternative supply. This resulted in a significant reduction of imports from primarily China and Vietnam. Transitioning supply is a time-consuming activity. Suppliers need to take the time to ensure that visual is a commercial match and that requires film supply and embossing plate changes.”
Even with the decrease in residential WPC dollars and volume, suppliers agree that WPC still has its place in the home. “It really goes back to looking at universal basic needs, and obviously one of those is comfort—WPC delivers that,” Shaw’s Martenn said. “There’s also the perceived value of a thicker product. So I think there’s a lot of opportunities there with WPC. We’re the leader, and we’ll continue to invest in WPC—like we’ll continue to invest in SPC as well.”
Drew Hash, president and CEO, Southwind Floors, agreed, noting WPC’s advantages over other constructions. “Though WPC has been around a little longer than SPC, it still has certain advantages over the SPC products. For instance, WPC has a better R value, so it insulates better. Plus, it has better acoustics underfoot. At Southwind, we carry WPC in our rigid core offerings because there is a demand for it.”
Flexible LVT products (including glue down, loose lay and flex click) continue to cede market share to the more popular rigid core subsegment, at least on the residential side. Of the total estimated $6.325 billion residential resilient market, flex came in at just $922 million in dollar sales in 2023, or 14.6% of the residential resilient market. In terms of volume, it garnered 18.5% of the market with 872.45 billion square feet.
Glue-down products are the most sought after in the residential flexible LVT category, garnering nearly $800 million of the $922 million in flex sales and 767.9 billion square feet of the total 872.45. That is, however, still down from 2022’s $862 million in dollar sales and 779 million square feet.
For some, however, residential glue-down still has its place. “For Engineered Floors, residential glue-down products are more prominent in the multifamily market and sales continue to be steady,” said Joe Young, vice president of residential product and marketing. “This remains a cost-effective way to have the look of an LVP floor without sacrificing what people love about resilient—durability, versatility in design, ease of maintenance. Not to mention, because it is glued down, it can be used in commercial settings.”
And, while loose lay and flex click are drops in the bucket, some suppliers are still finding success with those constructions as well. “It was a good year [for loose lay],” said Noah Fulton, vice president of business strategy, Karndean. “Compared with glue down and rigid core, people recognize the benefits of, No. 1, an easy installation and, No. 2, style and performance for the homeowner. Some look at loose lay as a thicker glue down with additional benefits for comfort and acoustics.”
Sheet vinyl continues to be a viable part of the residential resilient market but, like all constructions, lost dollars and volume in 2023. The subsegment came in at $484.75 million last year, a decrease of 5.6% from 2022’s $513.5 million. In terms of volume, it garnered 834 million square feet, down 13.8% from 2022’s 967.65 million square feet and down 10.8% from 2021’s 935.4 million square feet. Overall in 2023, it claimed about 7.66% of the overall residential resilient market.
However, 2022 and 2021 saw health increases in sheet (a 14% gain in dollars in 2022 and 13% gain in 2021), so the slight decline may not be as dire as it seems considering the shape of every other segment.
“Sheet has seen the biggest growth in the multifamily selling channel—this segment had immediate material needs and budgets that turned buying decision to sheet when freight was at peak levels in 2022,” said Jason Surratt, president, Tarkett. “The design capabilities, particular in stone and abstract visuals, compared to LVT and rigid products gives the buyer the ability to provide a waterproof realistic aesthetic at an incredibly affordable price.”
Commercial breakdown
Commercial did fairly well in 2023. Within the resilient category, commercial’s market share was up from 34% to 40%. The category generated $2.22 billion in sales and 1.233 billion square feet in 2023. That’s compared to $2.23 billion and 1.273 billion square feet in 2022. That means dollars were basically flat while volume was only down 3.1%.
In terms of the overall commercial market, resilient flooring accounts for more than 30% of the total pie.
“2023 was a good year for commercial,” Mohawk’s Ward said. “Commercial got a lot of deferment of replacement and other projects during [the pandemic]. So ’23 was still a very good year for [commercial] because there’s a lot of projects that were restarted after COVID-19 that came to fruition.”
For the commercial resilient flooring market, LVT is still the star. The resilient subcategory (including flexible click, glue-down, loose lay and rigid) kept its 75% share of the overall commercial resilient market, garnering $1.666 billion in dollars and 863.9 million square feet. That’s relatively flat in dollars compared to 2022’s $1.667 billion and about a 1.1% increase in volume from 2022’s 854.5 billion square feet.
LVT, according to suppliers, continues to be specified across a range of segments. “LVT is really strong,” said Whitney LeGate, senior vice president, commercial product, Mannington Commercial. “It continues growing. In ’23 it was very steady, really consistent across all the categories. We see healthcare using a lot of LVT, education as well. They’ve gotten really creative with designs and finding a balance between hard and soft surface.”
Jeff West, VP of marketing, Shaw Contract, agreed, noting: “Overall, LVT continued to be strong. I think LVT slowed, but we’re continuing to see growth in LVT. The education sector in ’23 remained very, very strong. Overall, ’23 was a good year.”
Within the resilient flooring LVT category, flex remains the favorite. FCNews research shows flexible LVT (including glue-down, loose lay and flex click) brought in $1.446 billion in sales and 764.75 million square feet. That’s mostly flat in both dollars and volume compared to 2022.
The subsegment still accounts for the bulk of activity within the commercial market. Flex LVT accounts for 65.16% share of the resilient commercial market’s $2.22 billion in sales and 62.5% of its overall volume. That’s essentially flat against 2022’s 65% share of the resilient commercial market’s $2.231 billion in sales and up slightly from the year’s 60% of its overall volume. It’s also up in both dollars and volume from 2021’s 62.1% share of sales and 57% of its overall volume—and up even more from 2020 when it garnered 61.6% in dollars and 53.6% in volume.
Glue down is still the workhorse for the commercial LVT market. In 2023, it grew its market share of the overall LVT category, representing 88.2% share of the category’s $1.666 billion in sales ($1.275 billion); and 81% in volume (700 million square feet). That’s compared to 2022’s 76% of the commercial LVT market and 82% in volume, which was up from 70.8% of LVT sales and 78% of volume in 2021.
In terms of the overall commercial resilient market, glue down represents 57.47% share of the whole commercial pie in dollars and close to 57% in volume.
Suppliers agree, flex LVT fits into most segments of the commercial market and continues to drive sales. “Everything but hospitality, is a flex market,” Mohawk’s Ward said. “They need the ability to handle the rolling loads, the traffic, things like that. Loose lay, glue-down are the big drivers in those areas.”
While nowhere near as important as flex products within the commercial resilient market, rigid core (mainly SPC) continues to soldier on. FCNews research shows rigid core represented nearly 10% of total commercial resilient dollar share in 2023, or $219 million, which is flat compared to 2022.
Commercial rigid core flooring is mostly specified within the hospitality and multifamily segments where SPC’s performance features shine. “On the commercial side, SPC is really just hospitality,” Shaw Contract’s West confirmed. “We have not seen it eating into dry back in healthcare or education. I think SPC has displaced most all the WPC. I don’t really sense a demand for that.”
VCT had an interesting year, up about 37.1% from 2022 to $206 million. That garnered it 9.3% of the overall commercial resilient market last year. However, 2022 was also a unique year for VCT with the challenges surrounding Armstrong Flooring, one of the biggest providers of VCT that was unable to provide that supply. Versus 2021, VCT still gained about 5% in dollar sales in 2023.
Suppliers agreed, they saw gains in VCT in 2023 and some of those gains represented filling a hole in the market. “We had a very nice growth in VCT last year and, yes, some of that has to do with some competitive issues that we had,” said Antonio Bucca, senior director sales operations, Tarkett. “And then our product and service offering was pretty good.”
For some, there is also replacement happening in regards to LVT to the more reliable VCT product. “I think we’re seeing it more now,” Bucca added. “Last year we saw a little bit of it. We don’t know if that was from the competition, but we are seeing the switch back to VCT. People are used to putting the five to seven coats and it looks brand new. LVT has wear layers that can scratch and look beat up.”
Linoleum, on the other hand, garnered $106 million (down 4.5%) in 2023, which was just 4.8% of the overall commercial market last year. On the bright side, that was not much of a decline for linoleum as it has garnered an average of 5% of total market share since at least 2020.
The business has been dominated by Forbo for years, but others have begun to find success with the category. “Linoleum was a newfound growth [in 2023],” Tarkett’s Bucca said. “We had some areas of the United States from Texas all the way up to Boston where we saw growth in the education segment with linoleum.”
Commercial sheet remained flat in 2023, grabbing $244.5 million of the $2.22 billion commercial pie, or 11% of the market. The year prior saw a respectable 8% increase in dollar sales to $244 million compared to $226 million in 2021.
“Sheet vinyl was, again, still strong,” Mannington Commercial’s LeGate said. “Not a huge growth category, but steady. And it’s certainly a focus for us. We believe it’s a complementary product to our other healthcare products as well—both heterogeneous and homogeneous.”
Tarkett’s Bucca concurred. “We grew with sheet [in 2023.] It was a good growth category for us. And it was really because of the specialization that we had across our sales team. We have healthcare-focused reps. We invested a lot in training, education, the whole nine yards, and so that showed benefit for us.”
Suppliers agree, healthcare is where sheet still shines. “We’ll see it pop up here and there,” Mannington’s LeGate explained. “I think multifamily probably has a decent footprint—but yeah, I think absolutely healthcare is the majority of sheet.”
Commercial sheet is split into heterogeneous and homogeneous constructions. In 2023, heterogeneous comprised 62.7% of the total commercial sheet market in terms of dollars ($153.25 million) and 65.1% in terms of volume (61.7 million square feet). These numbers were mostly flat against 2022. Homogeneous garnered just over $91 million in 2023, up 12.2% from 2022. It garnered about 37% of sheet dollar share in 2023, which was also up from 34% in 2022.
Price points
Looking at resilient price points across constructions has been an interesting exercise over the last few years. The period between 2021-2022 saw inflated prices across the board and not many have come down yet. These years were obviously impacted by the pandemic and the high cost of not only materials but shipping and freight.
Looking at a five-year trend, SPC and residential glue down are the only resilient constructions that came close to pre-pandemic levels in 2023. For example, in 2019 SPC was at $1.69/ square foot, in 2023 that number was $1.68 despite several increases between ’21 and ’22. Glue down had a similar trajectory. In 2019 it was $0.99 and came in slightly raised (5%) to $1.04 in 2023.
The impact of SPC loosing that pricing gauge was likely heavy, given SPC accounts for 43.5% of the total resilient market in dollars ($3.718 billion).
The two resilient flooring constructions that saw the highest price increases over the last five years are residential sheet and VCT. Residential sheet was at $0.45 in 2019, dropped slight to $0.43 in 2020 and then grew to $0.48 in ’21. In 2022 it rose to $0.53 and then grew again in 2023 to $0.63. That’s a 40% increase in pricing over five years.
VCT experienced slightly lower growth rates but still experienced a 25% increase in price over the last five years from $0.68 in 2019 to $0.85 in 2023.
“[VCT prices have] absolutely grown,” Tarkett’s Bucca said. “It’s a product that used to be very low costing. Over time, with supply chain challenges—supply shortages and some raw material shortages—were driving some prices up because everyone’s costs were up. You can’t sell a product in those margins. So we saw the price increase throughout the industry and they’ve kind of stayed at those levels.”
