With existing home sales and new home construction having cooled significantly, mill executives expect a slow start to 2024 for residential carpet, with sales expected to be down mid-single digits. With inflation and interest rates normalizing, industry executives anticipate a more stable environment in the second half.
James Lesslie
COO, Engineered Floor
What is your projection for the carpet industry for 2024?
We see the first six months of 2024 to be a continuation of business conditions. Residential carpet will be in decline, but we believe retail declines will decrease to break even to growth by the second half of the year. Commercial could remain sluggish throughout 2024 but will have segments that will continue to show some growth.
What segments/products will fuel industry growth?
Multi-family, both new construction and replacement business, is in somewhat of a holding pattern. On new construction, high interest rates are delaying projects that have not already broken ground. 2024 will bring some improvement to single family, but not until later in the year. Residential retail will continue to be driven on the better end with soft products and patterns. Different residential products will continue to grow at the expense of the “me-too” looks.
Where do you see opportunities/challenges for next year?
The production of solution-dyed polyester carpets requires roughly 10x the number of yarn systems as compared to a piece-dye production model. The continued growth of solution-dyed polyester will drive production complexity that will challenge many mills’ supply chains. That could lead to service disruptions even with slower business levels. We have been managing the complexity of manufacturing solution-dyed polyester carpets for 12 years.
What are some of your company’s biggest initiatives for 2024?
The expansion of our PureColor High Def collection in soft surface. This solution-dyed technology offers consumers luxury and performance with softness you can see. The ability to blend dozens of colors into one piece of fabric makes this product feel more natural and allows the carpet to pull color from the surfaces around it—we call it color affinity.
Jamie Welborn
SVP, product management, soft surface, Mohawk
What is your projection for the carpet industry for 2024?
The carpet industry will still be challenged in 2024 due to economic conditions driven by inflation and interest rates. There is global concern with two major wars that will impact oil prices. Lastly, it is an election year, which could affect consumer confidence and delay spending. We think the market will most likely be down low single digits in 2024 compared to 2023.
What segments/products will fuel industry growth?
We expect an improvement in the builder channel and continued strength in multi-family. In addition, the higher-end carpets will show growth in 2024.
Where do you see opportunities/challenges for next year?
Opportunities will be in the builder segment due to pent-up demand and housing starts. In retail, you will see an opportunity in trade up with patterns and colorations. Consumers are willing to spend more on a differentiated carpet. A challenge is foot traffic into stores, which is driven by the economy.
What are some of your company’s biggest initiatives for 2024?
Carpets with All Pet warranties. Today we offer All Pet warranty on SmartStrand and our XTRA collections. Paired with SmartStrand, we are expanding into polyester carpets with the launch of our PET Premier line. It is engineered to perform, it is sustainable because it is made from recycled bottles and it is designed beautifully with great colors and nice definition.
Quentin Quathamer
director, residential carpet, Mannington
What is your projection for the carpet industry for 2024?
We believe 2024 will be a challenging year due to the ongoing inflation and mortgage rates that have cooled the housing market. Existing home sales and new home construction have slowed considerably due to those factors despite the shortage of single-family homes. We expect to see both units and sales to be down single digits.
What segments/products will fuel industry growth?
Multi-family housing and higher-end fabrics typically do well in this environment. The continued lack of supply in single-family homes combined with the increasing family formations will continue to fuel the multi-family segment where it’s more affordable in the current environment. People who have money will continue to spend the money and seek better-end goods as they spend it.
Where do you see opportunities/challenges for next year?
Give people high-quality and wallet-friendly solutions that provide a peace of mind along with the comfort, warmth and quiet environment they seek—this is how you win over the consumer. Our challenges will be centered on the economy. Does inflation, mortgage rates and disposable income improve or get worse?
What are some of your company’s biggest initiatives for 2024?
Phenix has an aggressive 2024 product launch, with wallet-friendly, benefit-rich introductions featuring our SureSoftSD fiber and Microban. We will offer new products for consumers who seek the very best in performance, design and ease of maintenance with our FloorEver Pet Plus display featuring SureSoftSDN fiber and Microban.
Warren Whitfield
divisional VP fibers and residential soft surface manufacturing, Shaw
What is your projection for the carpet industry for 2024?
We anticipate navigating a challenging and somewhat uncertain terrain, particularly given the backdrop of heightened inflation and interest rates. The Fed’s stance on interest rates emerges as a pivotal factor. Unknowns around whether rates will moderate, maintain stability or escalate add an additional layer of complexity to the outlook for the carpet industry as significant shifts in lending rates can wield considerable influence.
What segments/products will fuel industry growth?
With the introduction of Canvas to our 2023 Anso Colorwall, we sought to create something that was foundational to the home with a textile inspiration in mind. It has been disruptive and refreshing to reimagine a shift for the Anso Colorwall.
Where do you see opportunities/challenges for next year?
Some key areas include:
- Innovation has led to the creation of new technologies that enhance the durability, stain and soil resistance, cleanability and overall comfort of carpets.
- Area rugs have become a crucial aspect of interior décor, adding a touch of luxury and personality to spaces.
- Carpet manufacturers are responding to the sustainability push by developing eco-friendly materials and production processes.
What are some of your company’s biggest initiatives for 2024?
Carpet is a huge initiative for 2024; in fact, that is how we came up with the Carpet is Cool platform. Our Anderson Tuftex and Shaw Floors products are attuned to the evolving landscape of consumer preferences. As accents, tweeds and colorful designs gain popularity, the brands are responding by incorporating aesthetic appeal and prioritizing functionality.
Jonathan Cohen
CEO, Stanton
What is your projection for the carpet industry for 2024?
The overall carpet industry has been challenged for the last 18 months. For 2024, we anticipate moderating conditions with some second-half improvement. With inflation and interest rates normalizing we anticipate a more stable environment. With that said, the unrest around next year’s presidential election may be a distraction for consumers.
What segments/products will fuel industry growth?
Decorative, innovative product that’s saleable across soft surface will continue to fuel growth in premium residential. Easier said than done, but that’s the perpetual challenge and opportunity.
Where do you see opportunities/challenges for next year?
We see opportunities in luxury performance, sophisticated use of color, differentiated texture and styling as well as soft and posh products. High-style, high-quality quick-ship rugs in both standard and custom sizes and finishes will continue to be important as well. We continue to make large investments in technology and automation to provide an outstanding service experience.
What are some of your company’s biggest initiatives for 2024?
We will continue to invest in high style, innovative products as well as great people across soft and hard surface sales and operations.
Jason Surratt
president, Tarkett Home
What is your projection for the carpet industry for 2024?
We believe the residential carpet market will contract in the mid-single digits range. The same challenges in 2023 of high interest rates and inflation impacting discretionary spending will impact the market, particularly residential replacement. We are modestly optimistic that the market could start to bounce back in the second half of 2024.
What segments/products will fuel industry growth?
Higher-end, patterned goods and the multi-family market should continue to see the strong activity. With consumers less frequently moving from their current home during this inflationary period, there will begin to be pent-up demand for residential replacement in retail.
Where do you see opportunities/challenges for next year?
We feel bullish regarding Tarkett Home’s broadloom business next year across all residential segments. Our 2023 introduction of Cloud 9 carpets was well received in the market, delivering luxury comfort and performance at an affordable price point, and the messaging is resonating with the consumer.
What are some of your company’s biggest initiatives for 2024?
We will continue to expand the overall portfolio of Tarkett Home broadloom that features our Cloud 9 fiber system. This will provide the end consumer a wider array of fashionable colors in textures and pattern aesthetics in the perfect blend of comfort, durability and value.
T.M. Nuckols
president, The Dixie Group
What is your projection for the carpet industry for 2024?
I see 2024 being another challenging year for residential carpet. The year-over-year comparisons may start looking better; however, keep in mind the residential carpet segment is now more than 20% below where it was just two years ago. Inflation remains high and, therefore, interest rates will remain high—at least through the first half of 2024. That will continue to impact new home construction, existing home sales and remodel activity.
What segments/products will fuel industry growth?
The high-end segment will continue to beat the market average. First, the wealthy are less impacted by inflation and poor economic conditions. They will continue to spend on home improvement when most consumers back away from non-essential purchases. Second, high-end carpet is frequently used in custom area rugs, which is a growing segment in residential. Conversely, I see lower-end products having an opportunity as the general population opts for less-expensive products.
Where do you see opportunities/challenges for next year?
I see opportunities for growth in targeted market segments. With challenging market conditions continuing, a very focused approach to attacking those opportunities will be critical.
What are some of your company’s biggest initiatives for 2024?
Fabrica is celebrating its 50th anniversary and we will have a marketing campaign including social media, product promotions and in-store merchandising. We will continue with a high level of focus on our growth initiatives including DuraSilkSD in DH Floors, 1866 by Masland and Décor by Fabrica. We will also celebrate the role color plays in the soft surface segment with Masland and Fabrica.
